Unit of Spatial Planning

and

Regional Development - SPReD

g en

STRAND 1:
Theoretical Bases for Foresight Methodologies

  1. Emergence, replication and anticipation in social systems
  2. Learning methodology from foresight in practice
  3. Workshop: Paths to methodological development in foresight and futures, what is needed now?

STRAND 2:
Identifying Seeds of Change

  1. Windows on the seeds of change
  2. Struggling with systemic approaches
  3. Framing perspectives on futures
  4. Experimenting futures and emergence
  5. Workshop on Futures literacy
  6. Cases on envisioning futures

STRAND 3:
Integrating Narratives and Numbers

  1. Theorizing about Foresight Methodology
  2. System Content Issues
  3. Approaches and Tools
  4. Empirical Applications

STRAND 4:
Interactions between Researchers, Decision Makers and the Public

  1. Policy and Decision
  2. Learning and Knowledge
  3. Dissemination Context
  4. Vision

                                                                                            

CONFERENCE PROGRAMME

 

July 9 (Day One)

 

 

 

08.30-09.30

Registration

 

 

09.30-13.00

Plenary

 

09-30 – 10.30

Chair:

Welcome

Welcome

 

Welcome to the Final Conference of COST A22

 

Prof. Maria Giaoutzi

Prof. Moutzouris C. - Rector NTUA

Prof. Marinos Kavouras – Dean of the School of Rural and Surveying Engineering

Prof. Ted Fuller – COST A22 - Chairman
Dr. Peter De Smedt – COST A22 – Secretary

 

Ministry of Development – General Secretary of Research and Development

 

10.30 – 11:00

Chair

Introduction to the COST A22

 

Nicolaos Konstantopoulos – Bartolomeo Sapio

Ted Fuller

11.00-11:20

Working Group zero (WG0)

Foresight methodologies; creative tension between disciplines and application
Ted Fuller

11:20 – 11.40

Working Group one (WG1)

In search of converging signals on seeds of change methodologies.
Pierre Rossel

11.40-12.00

Coffee break

 

 

12.00-12:20

Chair:

Working Group two (WG2)

Nicolaos Konstantopoulos – Zia Zardar

Commensurability in methods for exploring futures
Maria Giaoutzi

12:20-12:40

 

Working Group three (WG3)

The creation of futures from purposeful interaction
Kristian Borch

12:40 – 13:00

Feedback

Summary and response from a founder of COSTA22
Philip van Notten

 

 

 

13.00-14.00

Lunch

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.00-15.30

Parallel Sessions

SLOT I

STRAND 1: Emergence, replication and anticipation in social systems
Chair: Ted Fuller, Rapporteur Philip van Notten

  1. An Introduction to the Ontology of Anticipation, Roberto Poli
  2. Exploring cultural frame change: Towards a capacity to co-create the next form of human civilization by modeling the evolution of human consciousness and culture, Ruben Nelson
  3. Constructing futures: A social constructionist perspective on foresight methodology,  Ted Fuller and Krista Loogma

 

STRAND 2: Windows on the seeds of change
Chair: Ulrik Joergensen – Rapporteur Sandro Mendonca
  1. Perspectives in understanding weak signals, Mari Holopainen
  2. Management's ability to foresee emerging signs of a strategic change, Anita Lehtinen-Toivola
  3. e-Government 2015: exploring m-Government scenarios, between technology-driven experiments and citizen-centric implications, Gianluca Misuraca
 
STRAND 3:  Theorizing about Foresight Methodology
Chair: Emmanuel Koukios – Rapporteur Bartolomeo Sapio
  1. Forms of reasoning in pattern management and in strategic intelligence, Tuomo Kuosa
Bridging qualitative and quantitative methods in foresight, Matthias K. B. LüdekeMicro-meso-macro. From the heritage of the Oracle to foresight, Peter Alacs
STRAND 4: Policy and Decision
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Peter De Smedt
  1. Can negotiating the future influence policy and social change?, Peter De Smedt
  2. The Slovak Foresight Programme, Edita Nemcová
  3. Developing Participatory Foresight Systems and Activities at Regional Level Administration in Finland: How to Boost the Implementation of the Lisbon Strategy at the Regional and National Levels in Europe?, Jouni Marttinen and Jari Kaivo-oja

15.30-16.00

Coffee Break

 

16.00-17.30

 

 

 

Parallel Sessions

SLOT II

STRAND 1: Emergence, replication and anticipation in social systems (continued)
Chair: Ted Fuller, Rapporteur Philip van Notten
  1. Considering Foresight as an intervention within an already existing future oriented debate: renewing the approach for the design, implementation and evaluation of foresights?, Sebastian Treyer
  2. Tentative considerations about the assessment of panel-based foresight methods. Lessons from focus groups in social research, Simone Arnaldi
Group discussion: What is the practical value of foresight theory?
STRAND 2: Struggling with systemic approaches
Chair: Pierre Rossel – Rapporteur Ulrik Jørgensen
  1. Introducing seed of change: Exploring new way to explore the future, Jari Kaivo-oja, Sandro Mendonça
  2. On contexts and their dynamics, Karl-Heinz Simon
  3. Philosophical tools for dealing with unexpected events and developments, Otto Wolf
 
STRAND 3: System Content Issues
Chair: Ioannis Psarras – Bartolomeo SapioScenario transfer methodology and technology, Bartolomeo Sapio and Enrico Nicolo’
  1. Integrating GIS and fuzzy logic for scenario analysis in foresight, Hatzichristos T. and Giaoutzi M.
  2. Foresight of innovative energy technologies through a linguistic multi criteria approach, Doukas, H., Papadopoulou, A.G. and J.Psarras
STRAND 4: Policy and Decision (continued)
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Peter De Smedt
  1. The future in the stars – European Policy Making and The exploration of the future, Karin van der Ven
  2. Scenario as a tool for integrated coastal zone and water resources management, Alexandra Mexa, Giorgos Kallis, Dionyssia Hatzilacou and Harris
  3. Russian Industry-Energy Foresight, Vladimir Nikitaev and Georgy Afanasyev

 

Evening: Open Social Evening

July 10 (Day Two)

 

9.30-11.00

   Parallel SessionsSLOT III STRAND 1: Learning methodology from foresight in practice
Chair: Zia Zardar - Rapporteur Harry Rothman
  1. Reflexive foresight for innovation: Learning from science and technology studies, Philine Warnke
Linking futures research with management science: improving innovation and strategy processes within companies, Patrick van der Duin & Erik den Hartigh
  1. A social shaping of technology (SST) approach to technology foresight, Michael Søgaard Jørgensen, Ulrik Jørgensen and Christian Clausen
 
STRAND 2: Framing perspectives on futures
Chair: Riel  Miller – Rapporteur Jari Kaivo-oja
  1. Using semiotics and metaphors for identifying signs of change, Rutta Ruttas-Kuttim
  2. Experts and disciplines – sources of change and the construction of visions in foresight studies, Ulrik Jørgensen
  3. Meta-framing: the art of putting weak signals in perspective, Pierre Rossel
 
STRAND 3: Approaches and their Tools (I)Chair: Matthias Ludeke – Rapporteur Bartolomeo Sapio Scenario planning as a tool in foresight exercises: A methodological framework, Stratigea A. and M. Giaoutzi
  1. Foresight at a contract research organisation: Linking stakeholders and methods in participatory processes, Totti Könnölä, Toni Ahlqvist, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, and Raija Koivisto
  2. Foresight for multi-country and sub-national regions in developing countries, Ana Morato and Modesto Escobar
STRAND 4: Learning and Knowledge
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Tamas Kristóf
  1. Learning theory and its application in foresight practice, Tamas Kristóf
  2. Will entrepreneurship, knowledge management and foresight emerge in a system?, Arturs Puga
  3. Towards a new foresight approach for the ICT development process, Lieven De Marez and Katrien De Moor

 

 

 

11.00-11.30

Coffee Break

 

 

 

 

11.30-13.00

Parallel Sessions

SLOT IV

STRAND 1: Learning methodology from foresight in practice (continued)
Chair: Zia Zardar - Rapporteur Harry Rothman

  1. Foresight and innovation: How far can we see?, Igor Gazdík
  2. Foresight Lacquer:  Layering futures tools to amplify impact (case study), Wendy L Schultz
  3. Tool transfer, appropriate adaptation? The use of Delphi in National Science and Technology Foresight Exercises,  Ozcan Saritas and Michael Keenan

 

STRAND 2: Experimenting futures and emergence
Chair: Jari Kaivo-oja – Rapporteur Riel Miller

  1. The futures window, a new method for presenting visual weak signals in organizational environment, Elina Hiltunen
  2. Business wargaming: developing foresight within a strategic simulation , Jan Oliver Schwarz

 

STRAND 3: Approaches and their Tools (II)
Chair: Ana Morato – Rapporteur Jan Erik Karlsen Opportunities for combining quantitative and qualitative approaches in scenario-building (The experience of the “Estonia 2010” project), Erik Terk
  1. Is new economic research more qualitative?, Jana Gasparíková
  2. Do U.S. and EU-15 countries meet the Kyoto targets till 2012? Exploring numbers and narratives for U.S. and European energy and climate policies, Teemu Haukioja and Jari Kaivo-oja

 

 

STRAND 4: Learning and Knowledge (continued)
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Tamas Kristóf

  1. Scenarios for setting up research priorities, Karel Klusacek (20 min)

 

STRAND 4: Dissemination
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Sandra Dingli

  1. Foresight:The dissemination and implementation of results of foresight activities, Sandra  Dingli (30 min)
  2. The Greek Technology Foresight: The case of healthcare, health and quality of life: Links among  technology assessment, foresight and strategic planning, Nikos Koukoumas and Demosthenes Agrafiotis (20 min)
  3. Foresight In The Nordic countries' research and innovation councils, Per Dannemand Andersen, Mads Borup, Thorvald Finnbjörnsson and Thomas Malmér (20 min)

 

 

 

 

13.00-14.00

Lunch

 

 

 

 

14.00-15.30

Parallel SessionsSLOT V STRAND 1 and STRAND 2: Workshop on Futures literacyChair:  Riel Miller, Ulrik Jørgensen and Pierre Rossel
Organised by Riel Miller, Ulrik Jørgensen and Pierre RosselOpen to all conference participants
STRAND 3:
Chair: John Mourmouris -  Rapporteur Peter Alacs Technology foresight as a policy tool for sustainable development in the knowledge society: Lessons from the Greece 2001-2021 Foresight Exercise, Emmanuel G. Koukios Development of foresight methodology in Poland verified by the example of nanotechnology, Anna Sacio-Szymanska, Adam Mazurkiewicz and Beata Poteralska Towards a classification of tools and approaches applicable in foresight studies, Jan E. Karlsen
STRAND 4: Participation
Chair : Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Serge Stalpers
  1. Stakeholder participation and dialogue in foresight, Ozcan Saritas, Lisa Pace and Serge Stalpers (30 min)
  2. Dialogue in foresight: Consensus, conflict and negotiation, Kristian Borch and Fredesvinda Mérida (20 min)
  3. Dialogues on air pollution: An Asian example, Carolien Kroeze and Serge Stalpers (20 min)
  4. Utilisation of Delphi based future information in agri-technology foresight, Pasi Rikkonen (20 min)
 

 

   

16.00-17.30

Parallel Sessions  SLOT VI STRAND 1 and STRAND 2: Workshop on Futures literacy (continued) Chair: Riel Miller, Ulrik Jørgensen and Pierre Rossel
Organised by Riel Miller, Ulrik Jørgensen and Pierre RosselOpen to all conference participants
STRAND 3:
Chair: Jan Erik Karlsen  - Rapporteur Ana Morato Willingness-to-use models for climate policy, Serge Stalpers
  1. Models of change, with key examples from the future studies field:  A foresight tool to aid policy-makers,  Linda Groff
 
STRAND 4: Participation (Continued)
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Serge Stalpers
  1. The dialogue of cultures, civilizations, and religions:  Tools for an interdependent world, Linda Groff (20 min)
  2. The role of support group in the polish national foresight programme, Anna Kononiuk, Andrzej Magruk, Joanicjusz Nazarko (20 min)
 STRAND 4: Vision
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Michael Søgaard Jørgensen
  1. Visions and visioning in foresight activities, Michael Jørgensen and Dan Grosu (30 min)
  2. The lack of transition strategy and a development strategy of Serbia, Miroljub Hadžic (20 min)
 

 

   

16.30-17.00

Organization Meeting Working Group: Leaders and rapporteurs

17.00-18.00

Executive Management Committee  

 

20.00-23.00 : Conference Dinner in Varkiza - Athens

 

July 11 (Day Three)

 

   

09.30-11.30

Parallel SessionsSLOT VII STRAND 1:
Workshop: Paths to methodological development in foresight and futures, what is needed now?
Chair: Ted Fuller - Rapporteur Atilla Havas  
STRAND 2: Cases on envisioning futures
Chair: Kostis Koutsopoulos - Rapporteur Ruuta Ruttas-Kuttim
  1. Exploring seeds of change within the actualization process of future images for Hungary, Eva Hideg, Erzsebet Novaky and Andras Vag
  2. Constructing the future of the Web 2.0, exploring the seeds of change as a system, Olivier Glassey
Strand 2 closing remarks (30 min)
STRAND 4: Vision (continued)
Chair: Kristian Borch - Rapporteur Michael Søgaard Jørgensen
  1. The future of stem cell research, Peter Plougmann (20 min)
  2. Thinking about the futures for Universities: Alternative futures for the EU, ERIA and EU universities, Attila Havas (20 min)
  3. Experiencing futures, Nik Baerten, Nicole Rijkens-Klomp and Michael van Lieshout (20 min)

 

   

11.00-11.30

Coffee Break  

 

   

11.30-13.00

Plenary Closing and Future
Chair: Peter De Smedt – Rapporteur Michael Søgaard Jørgensen
 
Reports from chairs and rapporteurs from each Strand.
The concluding Key Messages of   COSTA22.Discussion: The Futures of Foresight: One Community or Many? Close of conference - Ted Fuller and Maria Giaoutzi