Unit of Spatial Planning


Regional Development - SPReD

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EFONET Workshop

“Success Stories in National Foresight as Blueprints for EU Energy Foresight”

29th April 2009, Athens


The aim of the EFONET Workshop on „ Success Stories in National Foresight as Blueprints for EU Energy Foresight” held on April 29th 2009 at the National Technical University of Athens was:

  1. to learn from current practice in energy foresight exercises carried out already on National and international levels, and
  2. to identify objectives, topics an methodology potentials for European level energy foresight.

The workshop covered of five presentations on energy foresight practices followed by working group discussions and a final focused fishbowl (panel) discussion (see agenda below). Presentations can be downloaded from www.efonet.org.

Important issues which were stressed on the workshop were:

broad variety of energy foresight approaches on national levels

On national levels, a broad variety of approaches & tools for energy foresight is being applied.

Shortcomings (as well as success factors) were mainly identified in the following dimensions:

- Clear setting, transparency & continuity of the foresight process

- Limitations of methodologies / tools / robust input data·

- Participation of stakeholders

- Consensus on conclusions

- Implementation and dissemination

Objectives link to methodologies

When assessing energy foresight approaches, the links between the foresight exercise’s objectives (basically: which decision is to be supported?), the exercises topics (basically: which energy related issues are addressed?) and the applied methodologies & tools need to be taken note of. As well as there’s no “one tool for all”, an foresight exercise’s success can only be measured against its specific objective.

Energy foresight on EU level useful

Workshop participants agreed that there is a broad range of objectives, for which energy foresight on European level can be useful.

This is especially the case when the process setup & the foresight objectives reflect subsidiarity, i.e. EU vs. national competences and if a consistent view of Europe is needed An indicative list of potential objectives for European level foresight processes was developed during the workshop:

- Rational decision making

- Validating current energy policies (and targets?)

- Understanding the influence of long term global scenarios on future energy systems

- Integration Economical /Social /Environmental /Geopolitical visions on energy policy

- Forward look of new technologies

- Energy RTD priorities

- Understanding the real value of externalities

- Territorial perspective (regional, cross-border, etc.)

- Anticipating (response to) ruptures

- For EU to exist on international scene - raise a flag

EC focus on quantitative modelling - Models are helpful, but not sufficient!

In the last decades, the European Commission’s focus in supporting oresight methodologies has clearly been the development an application of uantitative energy (technology) modelling tools. While the importance of quantitative modelling is not disputed, there appears to be a need to further research and develop the embedding of quantitative modelling into a comprehensive foresight & decision support process including the combination with other tools & methodologies. This is especially the case under settings and time-frames, when quantitative models are in danger to be used outside their validity boundaries.

Education on Foresight needed

Proper education is crucial to run successful and well-planned foresight processes. While the human resource base on quantitative modelling appears to be rather well developed, this seems to be less the case concerning the overarching and “soft” aspects of tools and methodologies for foresight processes, including scenario planning, combing quantitative and qualitative methods and the management of relationship to decision-making.

European foresight institutions yet to be discussed

The importance of an institutional setting to provide continuity to European (energy) foresight beyond pure quantitative modelling exercises was highlighted. Also, the national experiences show that the institutional setting is a very important issue in the foresight process. Present European institutions (e.g. IPTS or other units of JRC; single DGs) in their present set-up were judged as not suited to carry out processes comparable to the US National Intelligence Council’s US Energy Security Scenarios. However, discussions on optimal European institutional settings are still to be continued, including issues of e.g. centralised vs. decentralised structures, timelines and energy foresight vs. foresight in general terms.

Success factors for energy foresight as a process

A set of important elements for running and planning European energy foresight processes was identified. These are depicted in the following graph:



Success Factors for European Energy Foresight Processes

The results of the workshop will be further evaluated:

On one hand, the workshop’s conclusion will support the drafting of the EFONET evaluation paper / policy brief: “Summary Country Report: State of the art of MS energy foresight – transferability to European energy foresight” (lead author Krzysztof Kapusta, GIG, due summer 2009).

On the other hand, the workshop results will fertilise the EFONET evaluation paper / policy brief: “Starting points for new methods in trans-national European energy Foresight” (lead authors Timon Wehnert & Wolfram Jörß, IZT, due spring 2010).


Timon Wehnert / Wolfram Jörß

Institute for Futures Studies and Technology


Institut für Zukunftsstudien und

Technologiebewertung (IZT)

Schopenhauerstr. 26

14129 Berlin


Tel.: +49 30 803088 13 / 17

Fax.: +49 30 803088 88

e-mail.: t.wehnert@izt.de / w.joerss@izt.de



Krzysztof Kapusta

Central Mining Institute

Glówny Instytut Górnictwa (GIG)

Pl. Gwarków 1

40-166 Katowice


tel. +48 32 259 21 58

fax +48 32 259 22 67



The Energy Foresight Network EFONET is

funded by the European Commission under the 7th

framework program


EFONET Workshop

“Success Stories in National Foresight as Blueprints for EU Energy Foresight”

National Technical University of Athens, Greece

Multimedia Building, Zographou Campus, Herroon Polytechniou Str. 9, 15780 Athens

29 April 2009


9.00 Welcome and Introductions

Wolfram Jörß, IZT

9.30 Scope of the workshop – Key questions, expected results

Timon Wehnert, IZT

10.00 Success stories in national foresight activities. Cross – evaluation of the Country


Krzysztof Kapusta, GIG

10.30 Discussion

11.00 Coffee Break

11.20 Good practice in energy foresight - Greece national foresight example

Ch. Karakosta, H. Doukas, J. Psarras, NTUA

11.40 Discussion

11.50 Status Quo of EU energy foresight & EU competences in the energy fields

Bertrand Chateau, Enerdata

12.10 Discussion

12.30 Lunch

14.00 IEA Experts group on Energy R&D priority setting

Ugo Farinelli

14.20 Discussion

14:30 Overview of US Energy Foresight initiatives

Alexander van de Putte, PFC Energy International

14:50 Discussion

15.00 Coffee Break

15.15 Working groups on conclusions for Energy foresight on the EU level.

(1) Objectives and Topics for EU energy foresight

(2) Success Stories from (National) Foresight

16.15 Coffee Break

16.30 Presentation of working groups results –

Fishbowl Discussion: Do Success Stories meet Objectives & Topics for EU foresight?

17:15 Résumé of the 1st day

Wolfram Jörß, IZT

17:30 End of Workshop

List of Participants


No First Name Last Name Institution

1 Fouad Al Mansour IJS, Slovenia

2 Maria Belova Institute for Energy and Finance Foundation, Russia

3 Oihana Blanco Bask Innovation Agency

4 Nerea Blazquez Bask Innovation Agency

5 Bertrand Chateau Enerdata, France

6 Hélène Connor HELIO International

7 Haris Doukas National Technical University Athens (NTUA)

8 Ugo Farinelli AIEE / ISIS, Italy

9 Alexandros Filippidis Ea Energy Analyses, Denmark

10 Maria Giaoutzi National Technical University Athens (NTUA)

11 Elias Grammatikogiannis National Technical University Athens (NTUA)

12 Miklos Gyoerffi STOA / European Parliament

13 Wolfram Joerss IZT - Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, Germany

14 Krzysztof Kapusta Central Mining Institute (GIG), Poland

15 Chara Karakosta National Technical University Athens (NTUA)

16 István Krómer VEIKI, Hungary

17 Erik Laes SCK/CEN, Belgium - Sustainability and nuclear development

18 Edurne Magro Montero Inasmet Tecnalia, Spain

19 Iwona Nowicka Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education

20 Christian Panzer Vienna University of Technology

21 Ioannis Psarras National Technical University Athens (NTUA)

22 Pura Ribas Mateos CIEMAT, Spain

23 Andrea Ricci ISIS, Italy

24 Anastasia Stratigea National Technical University Athens (NTUA)

25 Alexander van de Putte PFC Energy, Switzerland

26 Victor van Rij Ministry for Education, Culture and Science, Netherlands

27 Daniela Velte Inasmet Tecnalia, Spain

28 Timon Wehnert IZT - Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment, Germany