AG2020

Foresight Analysis for World Agricultural Markets (2020) and Europe

AG2020 Consortium Meeting and 3^rd Expert Workshop

Images of the Future and Policy Scenarios for the AG2020

Chania, 2-4 September 2009

Expert Workshop on 3 September 2009

Venue: Meditteranenan Agronomic Institute of Chania (MAICh)

http://www.maich.gr/p/conference/

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

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Experts

Ana Iglesias, Prof. Department. of Agricultural Economics andSocialSciences, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid - ana.iglesias@kpm.es

Klaus Grunert, Prof. University of Århus, MAPP – klg@asb.dk

Patrick Grehan, Director Crehan, Kusano & Associates, Belgium -patrick.crehan@cka.be

Ruuta Kuttim Private consultant - Estonia

Niels Lindberg Danish Agriculture & Food Counsil

Gerrit Meester, Prof. Agricultural Policy Adviser within the Department of International Affairs in the Netherlands

Spetsidis Nicholas Local Expert - nspetsidis@essenceconsulting.gr

Christian Christensen CEO, Solum Group – cbsc@solum.dk

Hristofor Bunardzhiev CEO of Bulgaro Group Holding - h.bunardzhiev@bulagro.com

AG2020 Working Group Members

Kristian Borch RISOE National Laboratory, Technical University of Denmark (Project Coordinator) - krbo@man.dtu.dk

Maria Giaoutzi National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) – WP5 Leader (Local organizer) – giaoutsi@central.ntua.gr

Anastasia Stratigea National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) – WP5 (Local organizer) – stratieg@central.ntua.gr

Peter Nijkamp Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, VU University Amsterdam (FEBA) – WP5 - pnijkamp@feweb.vu.nl

Martin Banse Economics Research Institute (LEI) – WP3 - Martin.Banse@wur.nl

Jørgen E.Olesen Aarhus University (AU) – WP1 Leader - JorgenE.Olesen@agrsci.dk

Kristina Georgieva AgrobioInstitute (ABI) – WP6 - kristina@abi.bg

Atanas Atannasov AgrobioInstitute (ABI) – WP6 - atanas_atanassov@abi.bg

Marina Zapilko University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan (UAS) – WP4 - m.zapilko@wz-straubing.de

Tim Taylor Metroeconomica (METRO) – WP3 - ecstjt@bath.ac.uk

General Background for the Experts

AG2020 - Foresight analysis for world agricultural markets (2020) and Europe - is a research project funded within the 6th Research Framework Program - Priority 1 - Sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.

The objectives of AG2020 are:

to develop a foresight methodology enabling the study of the various types of agricultural systems and their specific challenges and constraints, in the EU countries
to identify and analyse trends and influential factors (drivers of change) by use of participatory approaches, that may influence the possible future developments of EU agriculture in the various countries. This includes combination of both quantitative and qualitative data by way of scenario methods using indicators and stakeholder validation
to develop strategic policy scenarios (backcasting1) based on the identified major drivers of change for the impact assessment of the probable and desirable future directions of agriculture both at a regional and a European level for the effective enforcement of the proposed alternative sets of policies
to develop indicators of EU sustainability targets in order to evaluate the different policies on a regular basis and to perform sensitivity analysis to policy scenarios on a regional basis
to map the different types of challenges in agriculture in the different EU regions and visualise the impact of a range of policy scenarios

More information about the project can be found on the AG2020 website:

http://ag2020.risoe.dk

Objectives and Structure of the Experts’ Workshop

A first workshop, held in Copenhagen in May 2007, discussed the methodological approach of AG2020 and elements of this approach. A second workshop, held in Florence in October 2008, continued the discussions elaborating on the assumptions and key trends for the AG2020 baseline as well as the draft Images of the Future in the context of AG2020.

From the two workshops, it emerged that transparency in the process of developing the project baseline is the key for acceptability of the baseline scenario. In respect to the Images of the Future, workshop discussions have resulted to further indulgence and convergence towards more cohesive and transparent Images.

The Chania workshop is the last workshop of the AG2020 Project where a group of experts from Europe has been invited, aiming at validating results and get input from experts’ specialized knowledge.

2.1. The Objectives of the Experts’ Workshop

The objectives of the Chania workshop are:

To further elaborate on baseline scenarios;
To set the targets for the three AG2020 images and put them in the perspective of the baseline;
To elaborate on policies measures, packages and paths that should become part of the Policy Scenarios;
To assess in a qualitative way the impact of these policies on the EU agricultural system;

More precisely, the purpose of the 3^rd workshop is described below.

Validation of images and baseline

In general, comments are needed on whether the current work is adequate and agreeable, and where there is a need for reservations (in your opinion) towards too strong conclusions.

So the following questions should be replied in a written form and returned to partners the latest till the 25^th of August in order to further stimulate the discussion during the workshop.

Is it the idea behind the images clear; to meet the scale of change in the targets that is needed according to the baseline?
Are the assumptions of the baseline scenario understandable, sufficient and plausible?
Are the images understandable, coherent, comprehensive, adequate and acceptable within the framing?
Are the images clearly enough distinguished among each other?
Are there missing elements and weaknesses in the baseline, and in the images?
Are the images in line with the most important driving forces for trends and developments in the agricultural sector?

Also provide feedback on:

Quantification of the images – what should be altered?
Linking baseline and images – how do the images correspond to the baseline and targets?
Identifying missing elements/what has been overlooked in images? Assessment of the impact of policy measures and technologies for target achievement

Various types of assessment have to be carried out in order to rank the impact of policy measures.

So the following questions should be replied in a written form and returned to partners the latest till the 25^th of August in order to further stimulate the discussion during the workshop.

Qualitative assessments on the strength of policy measures (and technologies) for the agricultural sector in the different matrices, regarding their impact on key factors of agriculture (Using templates and ranking from +++ to –) (see report)

Qualitative assessments with priorities over time horizon of likely effects, likely impacts on CO2, likely effects on environment and food quality/safety, implementation issues etc.(see report)

Assessing cost-effectiveness, lack of technological break-through, acceptability, other obstacles etc of the matrices

Please provide feedback on:

Assessment of the technological potentials and the limits for meeting the targets by technological solutions.

Policy measures missing in the present context?

The best way to cluster policy measures to maximize effect?

The best timing for introducing policy measures?

The policy measures that are most relevant to address the targets?

The obstacles to implement the policy measures?

The policy measures for which it is difficult to get societal acceptance of?

Please focus also on potentials and obstacles in technologies and policy measures, and have different aspects included – depending on your expertise:

What mix of technological applications will support target achievement in the different images?

How can market push demand and supply in agriculture towards sustainability?

What measures will motivate decoupling?

Others – please indicate.

Structure of the workshop

The workshop is divided into three entities:

Entity 1: Background and Images of the Future of AG2020;

Entity 2: Policies of an EU agriculture baseline; and

Entity 3: Draft Policy Scenarios in the AG2020 context

The project partners will have an opportunity to contribute to the discussions in all sessions.

Description of roles

Role of invited experts:

- Please read before the workshop the baseline and Images of the Future Reports

- Give feed back according to agenda

- Perhaps review after the workshop the Workshop Report, Policy Measures and outcome of the workshop.

Role of the working group members of AG2020 during the workshop:

- Prepare and give presentations and wrap up in plenary

- Participate in discussions in plenary and in groups

- Document discussions in groups, writing in templates on matrix etc.

Agenda

of the AG2020 Consortium Meeting and 3^rd Expert Workshop

Images of the Future and Policy Scenarios

for the AG2020

Chania, 2-4 September 2009

Venue: Meditteranenan Agronomic Institute of Chania (MAICh)

http://www.maich.gr/p/conference/

Agenda of the Chania AG2020 Workshop – 2.9.09

Time	Topic
9.00-9.30	Welcome and introduction / Kristian Borch (RISOE) Progress of the Project Remaining issues
9.30-10.00	Baseline Scenario / Martin Banse (LEI) Defining targets for the images Linking baseline to images
10.00-10.30	General presentation of case-studies
10.30-11.00	Coffee break
11.00-11.20	Case studies – Presentation of final results - Greece On: Description of frames and targets on a regional level (for each case) Assessment of policy scenarios on regional basis (for each case) Validation workshop for regional stakeholders (for each case) Report on regional cases
11.20 -11.40	Case studies – Presentation of final results - Bulgaria On: Description of frames and targets on a regional level (for each case) Assessment of policy scenarios on regional basis (for each case) Validation workshop for regional stakeholders (for each case) Report on regional cases
11.40-12.00	Case studies – Presentation of final results - Tuscany On: Description of frames and targets on a regional level (for each case) Assessment of policy scenarios on regional basis (for each case) Validation workshop for regional stakeholders (for each case) Report on regional cases
12.00-12.20	Case studies – Presentation of final results – Denmark On: Description of frames and targets on a regional level (for each case) Assessment of policy scenarios on regional basis (for each case) Validation workshop for regional stakeholders (for each case) Report on regional cases
12.20-13.00	Final discussion and conclusion
13.00-14.30	Lunch
14.30-15.15	The concept of decoupling (Martin Banse, Eveline van Leeuwen
15.15-16.00	Technology and energy - Policy measures per Image (Mads Ville Markussen, Hanne Østergaard, Kristian Borch,)
16.00-16.30	Regional Development – Social Cohesion - Policy measures per Image (M. Giaoutzi – A. Stratigea)
16.30-17.00	Coffee Break
17.00-17.30	Food quality and safety – Policy measures per Image (M. Zapilko)
17.30-18.00	Agriculture and trade policy - Policy measures per Image (M. Banse – E. van Leeuwen)
18.00-18.30	Synthesis and perspectives – P. Nijkamp
21.00	Dinner at the Almyrida Residence Hotel

Agenda of the Workshop – 3.9.09 – Expert Workshop

Time	Topic
9.00-9.30	Welcome and introduction / Kristian Borch (RISOE) The history of the AG2020 project The purpose of the workshop and the use of results Agenda
9.30-9.50	Methodology of backcasting in the project / Maria Giaoutzi (NTUA) - Coming from a baseline to 2020 (2030) images and back to baseyear - introducing policy options.
9.50-10.10	Baseline, the purpose, how it was made and main results / Martin Banse (LEI) Brief comments and discussions on key uncertainties: Targets and key data on the baseline, conclusions Key uncertainties
10.10-10.30	Questions and Discussion
10.30-11.00	Coffee break
11.00-11.30	The settings and key elements of 3 Images for 2020 (2030)/ Maria Giaoutzi (NTUA) – Martin Banse (LEI) Brief comments and discussions on major problems and omissions
11.30-12.30	Brief Introduction of Policy Measures – Matrices / Martin Banse (LEI) WP1 - The Use of Indicators in Policy Assessment (Jørgen E. Olesen) WP3 - Setting the targets for the proposed images and put them in the perspective of the baseline (Martin Banse) WP4 - Key Issues: Technology – Food Safety/Quality – Biobased Economy (Kristian Borch, Marina Zapilko, Hanne Østergård, Mads Markussen)
12.30-13.30	Lunch
13.30-16.45	Group sessions: I-IV Two members of the Working Group will take the responsibility for chairing and documenting the discussions in matrix templates. Chairing means to introduce the task and to present the matrix. A template of each matrix will be on a laptop connected to a projector showing the matrix on a screen. The matrix will be altered during discussions, marking agreements and controversial issues, and adding comments in a separate document. Discussion in plenary The templates will be shown on a screen, and comments, questions, crucial issues will be noted on laptop by WG members.
13.30-14.15	Group session I: Policy Measures - Impact on Key Factors of Agriculture – J. Olesen Identify effects and assess the strength of policy measures and technologies for agriculture – what can be agreed, and where are there controversies. Discuss cost effectiveness, time horizons, and likely effects on targets, implementation and other issues.
14.15-14.45	Group session II: Agriculture 2020 (2030) in the 3 images – M. Banse What is plausible and preferable in relation to AG2020 targets.
14.45-15.30	Group session III: Consensus and controversies on policy measures and costs the EU agriculture. The plausible agricultural situation in 2020 (2030) - Peter Nijkamp
15.30-16.00	Coffee break
16.00-16.45	Group session IV: Policy measures in combination with the 3 images – Peter Nijkamp Discussion in groups on how to allocate the different policy measures to the images, pointing to what is needed and what is possible, what obstacles and controversies to be aware of. The aim is to link the policy measures to the images. Allocating policy measures to each image will be done in 3 groups. Each group will be responsible for one image in a ½ hour group session. Group Image I: M. Banse Group Image II: A. Atanssov Group Image III: J. Olesen The groups’ discussions could be the basis for a cross-cutting discussion in a plenary session. However, the plenary discussions before the coffee break may have touched the images as well. And may have raised some crucial issues for discussions that the groups rather should address. In other words, at this stage the workshop agenda must be flexible.
16.45-17.30	Synthesis and perspectives – Peter Nijkamp What have we learned today – focus on policy measures. All working group representatives will have 5 minutes for presenting their views, followed by a ½ hour discussion.
21.00	Dinner at the Almyrida Residence Hotel

Agenda of the Chania AG2020 Workshop – 4.9.09

Time	Topic
9.00-11.00	Working on experts comments and suggestions per WP (P. Nijkamp)
11.00-11.30	Coffee break
11.30-13.00	Revising policy measures based on previous days workshop (P. Nijkamp)
13.00-14.00	Lunch
14.00-15.00	Distribution of work on additional remaining tasks (K. Borch)
15.00-16.00	Planning for the December Conference
16.00-16.30	Coffee Break
16.30-17.00	Remaining administrative issues
21.00	Dinner (open)